| 2017 PATCH SPRINT RACE PREDICTIONS | ||||||
| This used to be so easy when the Patch Sprint had like 40
racers, and I knew 39 of them! Now the field is stacked with elite trail
runners, semi-professional racers, NCAA skiiers, and camp alumni who are
intimate with the mountains. Meaning: Things are wide open and impossible to call! The route will be wet from a couple of pre-weekend days of rain, but race day is supposed to be ideal. Will the record - or the elusive two-hour mark - fall? Everything's been done over the past few years to "Tiger Proof" the course; the newly constructed start to the Pok-O trail is just the latest alteration of a course that is nearly a half-mile longer than it was in 2010, and well over a mile longer than 20 years ago. This year's results will boil down to race management, as the favorites in both men's and women's divisions will be shadowing one another to at least the top of Rattlesnake, before relying on their respective strenghts-- be it road running, steep climbing, or treacherous descents. Whoever manages the race best will capture the "Janny". |
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| Place | Race # | MEN'S RACERS | Finish Time | The Skinny | ||
| 1 | 133 | Sean Davis | 2:02:57 | Fast distance runner, race tough, and has put in a lot of mountain training | ||
| 2 | 1 | Jan Wellford | 2:03:18 | Sheridan has picked him to win every year he's raced. This year we'll see what happens. | ||
| 3 | 2 | Jeremy Drowne | 2:04:24 | Huge time improvement, but same placing, from 2016 | ||
| 4 | 135 | Paul Allison | 2:11:14 | Once won an 8.4-mile race against a train. Seriously! | ||
| 5 | 61 | Kyle Smith | 2:19:29 | Had he not stopped to re-tie his shoelace he would have finished in 2:19:24 | ||
| 6 | 132 | Michael Davis | 2:22:03 | Best previous time for a 50+ runner: 2:38:49 | ||
| 7 | 100 | Stanley Hatch | 2:24:39 | Doctors in race include an optometrist, oral surgeon, MD's, and plenty of PhD professors | ||
| 8 | 11 | Aaron Huneck | 2:28:23 | Ran with a cast last year, but he's normally a perennial Top 10er | ||
| 9 | 6 | Bill Hoffman | 2:29:54 | Leech and slug-infested swamps do a number on his exposed feet | ||
| 10 | 130 | Nino Manzella | 2:30:59 | Late break from his brother and friend, who refuse to talk to him the rest of the day | ||
| 11t | 129 | Daniel Manzella | 2:33:02 | It's not a Patch Sprint unless someone pukes going up Pok-O | ||
| 131 | Brian Beyerbach | 2:33:02 | PR for the Mile: 4:30. PR for a 4-mountain 13-mile race: Unknown. | |||
| 13 | 99 | Brian Chrzan | 2:36:15 | 17-Minute PR for 5K. PR for a 4-mountain 13-mile race: Unknown. | ||
| 14 | 4 | Harrison Chalnick | 2:36:24 | Has already dropped half of the Freshman 15 he packed on this year in Madison | ||
| 15 | 14 | Jacob Gittler | 2:39:44 | "Everyone knows I'm a head case at this race, but I'm in great shape!" | ||
| 16 | 98 | Adam Chrzan | 2:40:34 | Top-10, skiing for Clarkson, at the ECSC Regionals (15K Skate) | ||
| 17 | 62 | Brian White | 2:41:44 | Give or take 2 seconds | ||
| 18 | 12 | Mike Taptick | 2:45:01 | Physical Improvement: 12 years ago he raced in the Clydesdale division (219 lb) | ||
| 19 | 22 | Andrew Gonzalez | 2:47:30 | Looks for Alex Bridgewater when told he can find GU at the Homestead | ||
| 20 | 139 | Edward Gravelle | 2:47:49 | Former Top-6 Finisher at the Wakely Dam 32-mile Ultra | ||
| 21 | 88 | Chris Lafty | 2:47:51 | Wins award for most "Likes" of Patch Sprint Facebook posts | ||
| 22 | 19 | Tim Huneck | 2:49:12 | Struggled with the heat in '16; back to normal form this year | ||
| 23t | 17 | Erik Schreiner | 2:53:50 | Name Anagram: Nice Hiker Errs | ||
| 18 | Cody York | 2:53:50 | HS Wrestling standouts York & Canning hold post race grudge match | |||
| 25 | 73 | Jerry Ross | 2:54:17 | Back in his youth (age 59) he ran a 2:38. | ||
| 26 | 136 | Gus Harquail | 2:54:53 | High School track standout traveling all the way from Oregon | ||
| 27 | 9 | Jason Metakis | 2:58:00 | Look up his finish time in each of the past two races | ||
| 28 | 141 | Zach Floss | 3:00:08 | Laid back hippy attitude gives way to a tough competitive streak | ||
| 29 | 76 | Mike Daley | 3:03:03 | Once wrote a thesis on what it would take to break the 2-hour Patch mark. Still waiting. | ||
| 30 | 63 | Derek Payne | 3:03:04 | No relation to Lincoln co-conspirator Lewis | ||
| 31 | 93 | Zach Cross | 3:09:25 | Ditches his shirt halfway through race and is subsequently freezing on top of Pok-O | ||
| 32 | 13 | James Kobak | 3:10:35 | Executive Disorder, Tour '17: Coming to a small club or private party near you | ||
| 33 | 15 | Tim Singer | 3:14:08 | Pops an Ambien the night before to try to get some sleep. Never really wakes up. | ||
| 34 | 24 | John Rayburn | 3:15:34 | Tripped by Blue Boar, 12 minutes off of PR | ||
| 35t | 20 | Andy Hill | 3:16:50 | Lack of training actually has him feeling fresher and stronger | ||
| 32 | Cole Starkey | 3:16:50 | Holds unofficial record for the "Super Sprint" (course in both directions): 4:55:28 | |||
| 37 | 96 | Rob Wray | 3:18:40 | Nicknamed Rob "Wrong Wray" after missed turn coming down Bare | ||
| 38 | 84 | Joe Mattimore | 3:26:22 | Attacked by hawk on Sugarloaf, blood loss reduces weight, has a PR | ||
| 39 | 90 | Andrew Joelson | 3:32:41 | Comes back in 2018 to finish race 45 minutes faster | ||
| 40t | 34 | Chad Canning | 3:33:09 | Chad and Colden have logged more miles together than anyone in this race | ||
| 35 | Colden Mitchell | 3:33:09 | Past or present racers: Colden, Marc(ie), Rocky, Armstrong, Blake, Allen, Marshall. | |||
| 42 | 97 | Earl Gregory | 3:40:30 | Speed: C+. Strength: B+. Fortitude: A+ | ||
| 43t | 30 | Daniel Marin | 3:45:56 | Tribal Games 2017- Onondaga odds of winning: 4-1 | ||
| 43 | Miles Chalnick | 3:45:56 | Tribal Games 2017- Cayuga odds of winning: 5-1 | |||
| 65 | Sean Tarala | 3:45:56 | Tribal Games 2017- Tuscarora odds of winning: 7-1 | |||
| 46t | 5 | Jason Fiegl | 4:03:55 | Despite the easy pace, he still rips off a 5:32 Sugarloaf descent | ||
| 81 | Jameson Fiegl | 4:03:55 | Members of Pok-O-MacCready, N. Country Camps, and Dudley will all be at the finish | |||
| 48 | 23 | Tom Moffett | 4:06:11 | Don't Forget: Team Cookie Yard Sale, Peru NY: June 2-4 | ||
| 140 | Greg Pizzurro | DNF | Thinks Pok-O finish means camp; backtracks from top of Sugarloaf to Pillars | |||
| - | Matt Daly | DNS | Bartered his race # to Cole Starkey in exchange for a power drill and one of his dogs | |||
| - | Brian DeGroat | DNS | Busy fixing the septic so we can have a nice post-race picnic | |||
| - | Ken Ryba | DNS | Skips race to attend anti-Trump rally in Burlington | |||
| - | Michael Brakey | DNS | Skips race to attend Pro-Trump rally on Wall Street | |||
| - | Chris Brakey | DNS | DNS due to military obligation | |||
| - | Alec Gonzalez | DNS | DNS due to nautical obligation | |||
| Place | Race # | WOMEN'S RACERS | Finish Time | The Skinny | ||
| 1 | 7 | Sarah Duclos | 2:27:58 | Duclos & Van Dorn have an epic battle and no one else is even close | ||
| 2 | 8 | Rosanne Van Dorn | 2:29:04 | Cycling clothes make for some of the more colorful outfits on course | ||
| 3 | 142 | Kayla Beltran | 2:51:49 | Has logged more on-course training time than any other female in race | ||
| 4 | 16 | Annie Preston | 3:08:02 | Steady running and hiking; takes short breaks at summits and aid stations | ||
| 5t | 26 | Deborah Nordyke | 3:14:09 | 11 years later and the record is still intact | ||
| 27 | Katrin Schreiner | 3:14:09 | Opting for the cooler, earlier start "to have a better shot at my PR" | |||
| 7 | 72 | Elizabeth Lawliss | 3:16:33 | Impressive Top-3 finish at the 2016 Rochester Winter Warrior Half Marathon | ||
| 8 | 21 | Mindy Burkhardt | 3:18:18 | Makes generous donation at the 1812 Homestead rebuilding project table. Thanks! | ||
| 9 | 36 | Katie Moffett | 3:19:04 | Still 3-4 spots remaining for her Team Cookie 2017 Ragnar Relay team in September | ||
| 10 | 28 | Norwood Styles | 3:26:20 | College English graduate finds 142 grammatical and spelling errors in these predictions | ||
| 11 | 78 | Sami Daley | 3:27:11 | Patch Sprint Women's Overall Champion, 2003 | ||
| 12 | 29 | Stephanie Lylis | 3:28:01 | Most all-time Female finishes: All between three and four hours | ||
| 13 | 33 | Karen Lounsbury | 3:32:58 | Relaxing pace, never breathing heavy; just enjoying the run & sun | ||
| 14 | 38 | Tate Aronstein | 3:36:01 | Ear buds in, music loud, doesn't hear the bear coming up from behind | ||
| 15 | 25 | Pam Gonzalez | 3:39:11 | Stays totally clean and dry. Until the first Northway Tunnel (3" of water) | ||
| 16t | 37 | Cara Gentry | 3:42:16 | Diligent spring training, although not particularly quick | ||
| 91 | Ekaterina Geltser | 3:42:16 | Hooks in with Gentry when her husband totally ditches her going down Sugarloaf | |||
| 18 | 94 | Erin Campbell | 3:49:14 | Name Anagram: Nepal Climber | ||
| 19 | 39 | Charlotte Bush | 4:20:52 | Favorite Spice Girl: Scary. Favorite Backstreet Boy: Howie | ||
| 20t | 66 | Sarah Green | 4:44:05 | Battle of the Green Triplets: Most sarcastic | ||
| 134 | Katie Green | 4:44:05 | Battle of the Green Triplets: Most politically liberal | |||
| 22 | 92 | Miriam Hancock | 5:09:22 | 10 minutes in she says to friend: "This is the race you said was so much fun?" | ||
| 23t | 44 | Eliza Konowitz | 5:12:23 | Just got new glasses. Forgets to wear them. Trips 31 times coming down Bare. | ||
| 45 | Annie Chalnick | 5:12:23 | Merely training to be in top condition for the summer horse show circuit | |||
| 60 | Laura Potel | DNF | Stops at Tribal Springs for water, gets a DNF due to spiritual awakening | |||
| 31 | Emily Cromie | DNS | Breaks her shoelace six seconds before the start | |||
| Place (Net) | Race # | CLYDESDALE | Finish Time | The Fat (total time - pounds exceeding 200 = Net Time) | ||
| 1 | 3 | Liam Davis | 2:14:55 | Wins division easily; Outside contender for the "Janny" | ||
| 2 | 55 | Josh Bornt | 4:08:47 | Medium Josh is faster than Fat Josh, but not as fast as Skinny Josh | ||
| 3 | 42 | Andrew Chalnick | 4:50:17 | A rare year where top 3 NET times reflect top-3 gross times | ||
| Place | Race # | TREKKER | Finish Time | The Skinny | ||
| *** TREKKERS do not compete for placing | ||||||
| - | 47 | Bob Andrews | 2:18:33 | Picked the wrong year to be a trekker instead of a racer | ||
| - | 59 | Ken Marin | 3:49:24 | Snake on course alarms him, but adrenaline burst helps his finish time | ||
| - | 96 | Rob Wray | 3:51:40 | Nicknamed Rob "Wrong Wray" after missed turn coming down Bare | ||
| - | 71 | Pam Cataldi | 3:57:44 | Give or take two hours | ||
| - | 95 | Lauren Eastwood | 3:59:56 | 2017 Patch Sprint's foremost authority on climate change | ||
| - | 50 | Luke Moffett | 4:06:11 | Dad checks him for ticks every half-mile | ||
| - | 83 | Andrew Waber | 4:11:26 | Temporarily delayed by an impromptu poker game that breaks out on top of Rattlesnake | ||
| - | 87 | Maressa Waber | 4:11:26 | First trip to camp; HAS to visit North End; suffers as a result | ||
| - | 64 | Stephanie Konowitz | 4:12:53 | Perceived asthma attack turns out to be a black fly stuck in her throat | ||
| - | 68 | Tom Lynch | 4:20:39 | Somehow scored tickets to see Hamilton. Twice! | ||
| - | 69 | Mary Machado | 4:20:39 | Postponed her wedding three weeks so she could be at Patch Sprint. Respect! | ||
| - | 79 | Augusta Wilson | 4:29:33 | I own a golf club called the "Wilson Augusta" | ||
| - | 54 | Elizabeth Swan | 4:30:10 | Tells everyone "I know a short cut!" 15 minutes later, they backtrack. | ||
| - | 48 | Nora Wootten | 4:37:19 | Runs hard 3 miles, Jogs 3, Power walks 3, Slow walks the rest | ||
| - | 126 | Matt Wooten | 4:37:19 | Name Anagram: Two Ton Meat | ||
| - | 127 | John Young | 4:37:19 | Saves energy by drafting behind Wootten for the first 12.5 miles | ||
| - | 128 | Ireland Young | 4:37:19 | MacCready has recently had an Ireland, Dakota, Montana, Georgia and Carolina | ||
| - | 46 | Chris Bell | 4:41:33 | BREXIT: Good or bad for Britain? Discuss | ||
| - | 51 | Tor Killingsworth | 4:41:33 | Upcoming 46er celebration put on hold due to missing mountain. "Wait, Emmons is a 46er?" | ||
| - | 49 | Ruby Gibson | 4:46:29 | Name Anagram: Big Boys Run | ||
| - | 10 | Brendan Gibson | 4:46:29 | Regular sub-3 hour racer will be jogging with his daughter this year | ||
| - | 57 | Peter Joelson | 4:49:27 | Forgot shoes: Treks with one Converse hightop (left) and one Flip Flop (right) | ||
| - | 85 | Tom Preston | 4:50:16 | Shorts for speed, or long pants for poison ivy protection? That is the question. | ||
| - | 40 | Olivia Politi | 4:57:00 | Never text and hike! Trips on the Rattlesnake cliffs | ||
| - | 41 | Sierra Moscato | 4:57:00 | In 2021 she becomes the first person to do the entire course on horseback | ||
| - | 77 | Brad Spaulding | 5:00:02 | Newly fallen tree at Rattlesnake trailhead prevents him from breaking five hours | ||
| - | 67 | Sean Green | 5:01:35 | Battle of the Green Triplets: Most sensitive | ||
| - | 70 | Marilyn Ryba | 5:03:23 | Switches from racer to trekker "so I can smoke those walkers!" | ||
| - | 89 | Jen Killingsworth | 5:08:04 | Wins the over-45, under-five feet, anti-Clydesdale, arm-in-a-cast division | ||
| - | 58 | Jon Bush | 5:11:15 | Can you name the two trekkers who have set Guinness Book World Records? | ||
| - | 80 | David Joelson | 5:11:15 | Can you name the eight racers or trekkers who play music in a band? | ||
| - | 82 | Tom Nold | 5:11:15 | Breaks one of his trekking poles and is just not sure what to do with the other | ||
| - | 86 | Bob Mason | 5:11:15 | One of six trekkers who have are back after being away for four or more years | ||
| - | 52 | Phil Corell | 5:12:14 | A rare full course finish for the well-conditioned trekking veteran | ||
| - | 53 | Robert Browning | 5:12:40 | DOC CAN, and DID (first Patch Sprinter, 1986) | ||
| - | 136 | Jeanne Davis | 5:12:54 | With 7 entrants, Davis is, by far, the most common surname in the race | ||
| Place | Race # | KINDER SPRINT | Finish Time | The Skinny | ||
| 1 | 171 | Sam Wootten | 30:03 | Slowed a bit by too much pasta at carbo-loading supper | ||
| 2 | 178 | Lily Davis | 32:25 | Safer, but longer summit approach costs her the title | ||
| 3 | 174 | Ronan Young | 34:12 | Uses bottled oxygen. It's legal, but is it ethical? | ||
| 4 | 172 | Waylon Mattimore | 37:22 | Post-race drug test is positive; Escapes on a technicality | ||
| 5 | 179 | Aurora Davis | 46:11 | Smells roses, identifies plants, enjoys views | ||
| 6 | 177 | Sofie Fiegl | 48:47 | Diverts off trail to try some technical pitches | ||
| 7 | 175 | Addie Young | 50:29 | Chugs 4 Red Bulls at start, breaks an hour for race. Stays up all night. | ||
| 8 | 173 | Josie Moffett | 1:06:08 | Pushed too hard during training and failed to taper properly | ||
| 9 | 180 | Stella Mattimore | 1:11:39 | Stubbornly shakes off offers to be carried part of the way | ||
| 10 | 176 | Owen Tarala | DNS | Spends the morning catching frogs on Long Pond | ||
| Above list based on entrants and projected entrants through May 24 | ||||||
| Race number, subject to change, based on most recent placing | ||||||
| SEE RESULTS FROM PAST YEARS | ||||||
| Go to Patch Sprint HOME PAGE | ||||||