Risk Probabilities

Computed by Matthew Davis

Probabilities written as 0% and 100% are rounded to the nearest .01%

The bold cells are battles with equal numbers of defenders and attackers.

The green cells are when the odds are in the attacker's favour, red cells are for when they are in the defender's favour.

Results		Number of Defenders
		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30
Number of Attackers	1	41.67	17.36	7.23	3.01	1.26	0.52	0.22	0.09	0.04	0.02	0.01	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	2	65.97	38.97	19.14	9.35	4.24	1.93	0.85	0.37	0.16	0.07	0.03	0.01	0.01	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	3	80.15	71.22	49.44	36.05	23.02	15.5	9.51	6.18	3.72	2.37	1.42	0.9	0.53	0.34	0.2	0.13	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	4	88.42	81.26	69.69	55.17	43.71	31.76	23.75	16.39	11.79	7.87	5.52	3.6	2.48	1.59	1.08	0.69	0.46	0.29	0.19	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0	0	0
	5	93.25	90.11	80.88	72.16	59.83	49.99	38.81	30.83	22.79	17.44	12.44	9.24	6.42	4.67	3.17	2.27	1.52	1.07	0.71	0.49	0.32	0.22	0.14	0.1	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01
	6	96.06	93.93	89.21	81.82	74.17	63.73	54.99	44.66	36.91	28.65	22.86	17.12	13.28	9.66	7.32	5.21	3.87	2.7	1.98	1.36	0.98	0.67	0.48	0.32	0.23	0.15	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.03
	7	97.7	96.62	93.35	89.37	82.76	76.14	67.01	59.17	49.64	42.22	33.98	27.99	21.76	17.43	13.17	10.31	7.6	5.84	4.22	3.19	2.26	1.69	1.18	0.87	0.6	0.44	0.3	0.22	0.15	0.1
	8	98.66	97.98	96.25	93.32	89.62	83.79	77.93	69.85	62.76	53.96	46.91	38.84	32.78	26.27	21.6	16.83	13.53	10.29	8.11	6.04	4.68	3.42	2.61	1.88	1.42	1.01	0.75	0.53	0.39	0.27
	9	99.22	98.85	97.74	96.17	93.35	90	84.79	79.56	72.33	65.88	57.75	51.08	43.27	37.25	30.59	25.7	20.54	16.88	13.17	10.62	8.12	6.43	4.83	3.77	2.78	2.14	1.56	1.19	0.85	0.64
	10	99.54	99.32	98.71	97.65	96.12	93.5	90.44	85.75	81.05	74.52	68.63	61.1	54.82	47.31	41.4	34.71	29.68	24.25	20.3	16.2	13.32	10.41	8.41	6.45	5.14	3.88	3.04	2.26	1.76	1.29
	11	99.73	99.61	99.23	98.66	97.59	96.13	93.69	90.9	86.66	82.4	76.48	71.08	64.11	58.19	51.01	45.25	38.61	33.52	27.9	23.74	19.32	16.14	12.87	10.58	8.28	6.7	5.16	4.12	3.13	2.47
	12	99.84	99.77	99.56	99.19	98.61	97.56	96.18	93.92	91.37	87.51	83.64	78.24	73.27	66.8	61.24	54.4	48.82	42.29	37.2	31.47	27.16	22.48	19.06	15.47	12.9	10.28	8.45	6.62	5.37	4.15
	13	99.91	99.87	99.74	99.54	99.15	98.58	97.56	96.27	94.17	91.82	88.31	84.77	79.83	75.25	69.24	64.02	57.51	52.14	45.76	40.7	34.93	30.52	25.65	22.03	18.16	15.35	12.43	10.36	8.25	6.78
	14	99.95	99.92	99.85	99.72	99.51	99.12	98.56	97.59	96.37	94.43	92.27	89.05	85.81	81.28	77.04	71.46	66.55	60.38	55.22	49.02	44.04	38.27	33.8	28.79	25.01	20.91	17.89	14.7	12.4	10.02
	15	99.97	99.95	99.91	99.84	99.71	99.49	99.1	98.56	97.63	96.49	94.69	92.7	89.74	86.76	82.59	78.67	73.47	68.86	63.02	58.08	52.08	47.2	41.49	36.99	31.89	27.99	23.7	20.5	17.06	14.56
	16	99.98	99.97	99.95	99.91	99.83	99.69	99.48	99.09	98.57	97.69	96.62	94.94	93.11	90.39	87.64	83.8	80.16	75.32	70.99	65.46	60.74	54.95	50.19	44.56	40.08	34.93	30.95	26.5	23.15	19.5
	17	99.99	99.98	99.97	99.95	99.9	99.82	99.68	99.46	99.09	98.58	97.75	96.75	95.2	93.5	90.99	88.45	84.9	81.52	77.01	72.94	67.72	63.22	57.65	53.02	47.5	43.05	37.89	33.86	29.3	25.82
	18	99.99	99.99	99.98	99.97	99.94	99.89	99.81	99.67	99.46	99.09	98.61	97.82	96.89	95.44	93.87	91.55	89.2	85.91	82.78	78.56	74.74	69.81	65.52	60.18	55.7	50.3	45.91	40.77	36.71	32.07
	19	100	99.99	99.99	99.98	99.97	99.94	99.89	99.81	99.66	99.45	99.1	98.64	97.9	97.02	95.68	94.22	92.07	89.9	86.85	83.93	79.99	76.4	71.74	67.66	62.55	58.22	52.96	48.65	43.56	39.49
	20	100	100	99.99	99.99	99.98	99.96	99.93	99.88	99.8	99.66	99.46	99.11	98.68	97.98	97.16	95.9	94.55	92.56	90.54	87.71	84.99	81.31	77.94	73.54	69.66	64.77	60.6	55.5	51.27	46.25
	21	100	100	100	99.99	99.99	99.98	99.96	99.93	99.88	99.8	99.65	99.46	99.13	98.72	98.05	97.29	96.12	94.86	93.01	91.14	88.51	85.97	82.53	79.36	75.21	71.52	66.85	62.84	57.9	53.78
	22	100	100	100	100	99.99	99.99	99.98	99.96	99.93	99.87	99.79	99.65	99.46	99.15	98.76	98.13	97.42	96.33	95.15	93.44	91.7	89.24	86.88	83.66	80.68	76.76	73.26	68.81	64.96	60.18
	23	100	100	100	100	100	99.99	99.99	99.98	99.96	99.93	99.87	99.79	99.65	99.47	99.17	98.8	98.21	97.54	96.52	95.43	93.83	92.21	89.93	87.72	84.7	81.9	78.2	74.89	70.64	66.95
	24	100	100	100	100	100	100	99.99	99.99	99.97	99.96	99.92	99.87	99.79	99.66	99.48	99.19	98.84	98.29	97.66	96.71	95.69	94.2	92.69	90.56	88.5	85.67	83.04	79.55	76.41	72.36
	25	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	99.99	99.99	99.97	99.95	99.92	99.87	99.79	99.66	99.49	99.22	98.89	98.37	97.78	96.89	95.94	94.55	93.14	91.15	89.22	86.57	84.1	80.8	77.82
	26	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	99.99	99.98	99.97	99.95	99.92	99.87	99.79	99.67	99.51	99.24	98.93	98.44	97.89	97.06	96.17	94.88	93.56	91.7	89.89	87.41	85.08	81.98
	27	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	99.99	99.99	99.98	99.97	99.95	99.92	99.87	99.79	99.67	99.52	99.27	98.97	98.51	98	97.22	96.39	95.18	93.95	92.22	90.52	88.19	86
	28	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	99.99	99.99	99.98	99.97	99.95	99.92	99.87	99.8	99.68	99.53	99.3	99.02	98.58	98.1	97.37	96.59	95.46	94.32	92.69	91.1	88.92
	29	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	99.99	99.99	99.98	99.97	99.95	99.92	99.87	99.8	99.69	99.55	99.32	99.06	98.65	98.19	97.51	96.79	95.73	94.66	93.14	91.65
	30	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	99.99	99.99	99.98	99.97	99.95	99.92	99.87	99.8	99.7	99.56	99.35	99.1	98.71	98.29	97.65	96.97	95.98	94.97	93.55